Key Takeout’s from Cameron Bagrie’s Tauranga Economic Briefing
Thanks ANZ for the invite to Cameron Baglrie’s economic briefing which gave me some particular insights which I thought I would share.
My key take outs from his presentation;
- Economic Growth will slow from a gallop to a canter. That’s still good. NZ is well placed.
- There are many uncertainties and issues in the world currently. Focus on what’s in your control and what you can do locally.
- The un-winding of US Quantitative easing gives an uncertain outlook. The hard decisions by some Governments around the world have not yet been made, so markets are unsure what this will mean and the effects it will have (unwinding an Economic Experiment)
- Local decision making can make a difference to how your local market performs.
- Interest rates look to remain on hold until the middle of next year.
To back Cameron’s commentary particularly around interest rates, money markets were at the following levels (as 9.00am this morning) :
Official cash rate 3.50% (unchanged) 90 day bill rate 3.68% (down from 3.73)
1 year swap rate 3.80% (down from 3.84) 3 year swap rate 4.14% (down from 4.19)
10 year bond rate 4.07% (down from 4.18) NZ/US dollar 0.7865 (down from 0.7926)
Down, Down, Down, which is the current trend.
Cameron commented that he believed the Tauranga Housing market is well poised for growth and is predicting some increased demand, along with Auckland and Christchurch. I am seeing increased demand for construction loans which supports his comments. Construction housing can be a mine field for borrowers so happy to help clients in this area.
